Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + 2D Fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Fighter Fighting game?

Fighting + 2D Fighter

Of 85 developers who shipped a 2D Fighter Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×1981 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 117 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 117 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + 2D Fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $11k → $1.4k → $13k → $3.3k → $4.5k → $539 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + 2D Fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 481
Announced 117
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, 2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 34,102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Street Fighter™ 6 older $39.99 49,952 81% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,927,414) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Mortal Kombat 1 older $49.99 34,197 74% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,285,241) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Rivals of Aether older $29.99 33,284 96% 999k $30M (exactly $29,945,615) Aether Studios
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Injustice™ 2 older $49.99 17,445 86% 523k $26M (exactly $26,162,266) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: All-Star Battle R older $49.99 14,344 91% 430k $22M (exactly $21,511,697) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV $29.99 8,399 83% 252k $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) SNK CORPORATION
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Invincible VS $49.99 3,031 76% 91k $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) Quarter Up
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
Capcom Fighting Collection 2 $39.99 734 85% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
HUNTER×HUNTER NEN×IMPACT $59.99 230 64% 6.9k $414k (exactly $413,931) Bushiroad Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.