Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite?

Roguelite

Of 3,961 developers who shipped a Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,904 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×856 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 6,904 games are announced against 2,548 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 6,904 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,961
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $3.1k → $3.6k → $2.8k → $2.1k → $2.4k → $1.0k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,961
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,184)
Top 5% $407k (exactly $406,597)
Developers, 2 yr 3,961
Released games 8,359
Announced 6,904
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 799,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,668 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,904 games are announced against 2,548 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Roguelite

61 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Roguelite + Mystery Poor odds $899 131 devs
  2. Roguelite + Space Poor odds $809 312 devs
  3. Roguelite + Thriller Poor odds $748 26 devs
  4. Roguelite + Nature Poor odds $719 116 devs
  5. Roguelite + Conspiracy Poor odds $719 16 devs
  6. Roguelite + Aliens Poor odds $675 146 devs
  7. Roguelite + Science Poor odds $628 26 devs
  8. Roguelite + Futuristic Poor odds $539 246 devs
  9. Roguelite + Naval Poor odds $419 19 devs
  10. Roguelite + Villain Protagonist Dead $28k 9 devs
  11. Roguelite + Noir Dead $269 43 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades 2020 · $214M The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 2014 · $187M Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth older $14.99 415,060 96% 12M $187M (exactly $186,652,482) Nicalis, Inc., Edmund McMillen
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Back 4 Blood older $59.99 55,160 69% 1.7M $99M (exactly $99,271,452) Turtle Rock Studios
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.