Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Roguelite?

Roguelite + Thriller

Of 26 developers who shipped a Thriller Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $86k, ×182 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $18k → $719 → $5.0k (still earning) → $683 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,081)
Top 5% $87k (exactly $86,513)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 49
Announced 42
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Deckbuilding, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,338 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $750, 1 in 4 over $6.0k, 1 in 20 over $86k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Save Koch older $11.99 118 61% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,445) Wooden Monkeys
Paper Cut Mansion older $19.99 64 65% 1.9k $38k (exactly $38,381) Space Lizard Studio
Relief $9.99 112 70% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Billiontail
中国战疫 older $16.99 64 76% 1.9k $33k (exactly $32,621) 不吃蛋黄
Subway Exorcist Girl $1.99 306 82% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,268) 纤指游戏
Sea Of Radiation 2 $5.99 95 72% 2.9k $17k (exactly $17,072) NightWalker
Spectator 2 $12.99 33 72% 990 $13k (exactly $12,860) Neko Machine, Minechan
Grit Shot $6.99 29 75% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) nithic
Death Sees Twice: Spot the Difference $2.99 64 81% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) hirohasu
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
Gamble: Hard Exit $5.99 15 100% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) RedZet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.