Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Roguelite?

Roguelite + Futuristic

Of 246 developers who shipped a Futuristic Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 405 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×246 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 405 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 405 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 246
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $4.6k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $672 → $899 → $358 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 246
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $117k (exactly $116,941)
Developers, 2 yr 246
Released games 508
Announced 405
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 19,048 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 113 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 405 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Void Crew 2024 · $4.9M VOID/BREAKER 2025 · EA · $2.3M Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Star Renegades 2020 · $2.0M Oblivion Override 2024 · $913k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Oblivion Override older $17.99 1,692 90% 51k $913k (exactly $913,172) Humble Mill
METALLIC CHILD older $24.99 1,131 84% 34k $848k (exactly $847,911) Action Square(STUDIO HG)
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Sky Rogue older $19.99 1,059 92% 32k $635k (exactly $635,082) Fractal Phase
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.