Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Roguelite?

Roguelite + Nature

Of 116 developers who shipped a Nature Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 219 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $99k, ×208 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 219 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 219 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $3.4k → $2.2k → $1.1k → $898 → $2.8k → $539 (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $99,015)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 208
Announced 219
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 11,411 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $99k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 219 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Insurmountable older $24.99 832 78% 25k $624k (exactly $623,750) ByteRockers' Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Primordialis · EA $19.99 974 93% 29k $584k (exactly $584,108) Kyler Natividad, Keith Sammut
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Zoominoes $14.99 549 91% 16k $247k (exactly $246,885) Starlight Games inc.
Sipho older $17.99 339 83% 10k $183k (exactly $182,958) All Parts Connected
Day of the Shell $14.99 382 68% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Duper Games
Seeds of Resilience older $13.99 257 66% 7.7k $108k (exactly $107,863) Subtle Games
Idle Colony $5.99 551 82% 17k $99k (exactly $99,015) Faith G.
The Greenening $4.99 484 96% 15k $72k (exactly $72,455) Erkberg Games
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Rogue Labyrinth $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Tea Witch Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.