Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Roguelite?

Roguelite + Space

Of 312 developers who shipped a Space Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 478 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×251 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 478 games are announced against 195 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 478 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 312
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $1.5k → $2.1k → $2.6k → $1.6k → $2.3k → $599 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 312
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,395)
Developers, 2 yr 312
Released games 647
Announced 478
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 76,759 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 130 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 478 games are announced against 195 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Moros Protocol $24.99 731 81% 22k $548k (exactly $548,031) Pixel Reign
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.