Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Roguelite?

Roguelite + Aliens

Of 146 developers who shipped an Alien Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 224 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $680, ×1.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×773 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 224 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 224 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.2k → $4.5k → $2.1k → $358 → $2.5k → $675 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $675 (exactly $675)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $367k (exactly $367,405)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 297
Announced 224
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 62,794 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $680, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 224 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M Wall World 2023 · $2.4M Drill Core 2025 · $1.3M Greedland 2025 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Wall World older $6.99 11,353 90% 341k $2.4M (exactly $2,380,724) Alawar
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Wall World 2 $11.99 1,749 73% 52k $629k (exactly $629,115) Alawar
Space Beast Terror Fright older $14.99 1,255 91% 38k $564k (exactly $564,374) nornware AB
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.