Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming game?

Programming

Of 211 developers who shipped a Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×555 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 311 games are announced against 145 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 311 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 211
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $1.3k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $2.5k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 211
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,225)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,437)
Developers, 2 yr 211
Released games 632
Announced 311
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 18,025 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 80 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 145 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Programming

12 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Programming + Robots Fair $1.8k 24 devs
  2. Programming + Crime Fair $1.8k 12 devs
  3. Programming + Sci-fi Fair $1.7k 56 devs
  4. Programming + Futuristic Fair $1.2k 19 devs
  5. Programming + Cyberpunk Fair $1.0k 28 devs
  6. Programming + Fantasy Fair $899 13 devs
  7. Programming + Space Poor odds $21k 10 devs
  8. Programming + Science Poor odds $9.4k 25 devs
  9. Programming + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $1.7k 24 devs
  10. Programming + Hacking Poor odds $1.6k 63 devs
  11. Programming + Detective Poor odds $1.2k 13 devs
  12. Programming + Mystery Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Baba Is You 2019 · $9.4M Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M Software Inc. 2015 · EA · $5.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.