Should I ship a Medieval game?
Medieval
Of 2,218 developers who shipped a Medieval game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,170 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×890 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 4,170 games are announced against 1,310 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,527) |
| Top 5% | $423k (exactly $422,831) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 2,218 |
| Released games | 6,185 |
| Announced | 4,170 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Medieval
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 469,098 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,151 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,170 games are announced against 1,310 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
All pairs with Medieval
- 6DOF + Medieval Dead $416
- 3D Platformer + Medieval Dead $359
- Arena Shooter + Medieval Dead $300
- Sports + Medieval Dead $300
- Runner + Medieval Dead $269
- MOBA + Medieval Dead $119
- Racing + Medieval Dead $0
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 158,931 94% | 4.8M | $167M (exactly $166,829,871) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive) |
 | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
 | DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin | older | $39.99 | 83,722 84% | 2.5M | $100M (exactly $100,441,283) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | $49.99 | 59,690 76% | 1.8M | $90M (exactly $89,517,093) | Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos | |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
 | Assassin's Creed Mirage | $49.99 | 11,612 76% | 348k | $17M (exactly $17,414,516) | Ubisoft Bordeaux | |
 | ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist | $24.99 | 17,143 95% | 514k | $13M (exactly $12,852,107) | Adglobe, Live Wire |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.