Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Runner?

Runner + Medieval

Only 12 developers shipped a Medieval Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bloodthief, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $179 → $1.5k → $267 → $179 → $32k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $609,895)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 66
Announced 24
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 92% positive over 1,255 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Catch Me $5.99 178 70% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,987) Doorway Games
Return Of The Zombie King older $4.99 63 71% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Return To Adventure Mountain, LLC
Sheep Seeker $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KI… (Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KIRK, Séverin RICHARD, Matthieu FARROW, François HANUS, Quentin EUNG, Mattéo GLAIRON-MONDET, Lucas RENARD, Céline TRUONG)
2 Bows 1 Arrow $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) SKL Games
Dungeon Warriors · EA older $5.99 25 52% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) FireStone Studio
冬眠(hibernation) older $6.99 16 100% 480 $3.4k (exactly $3,355) 玄机子
Escape the Darkness older $2.99 24 87% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Indie Ninjas
行走 Walk $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) 无音 Deaf Team
Straight to the Bone · EA $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Foreign Acid
William The Best Shooter $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) CYBERVIGILANT LABS LTD
Catch the Witch $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Dirty Goblin
Universe Of Trials $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rohit Patidar
Birger's Saga $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) WRKS Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.