Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Medieval

Of 20 developers who shipped a Medieval Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 62 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $150 → $359 → $300 → $1.9k → $300 → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,868)
Top 5% $42k (exactly $41,766)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 73
Announced 62
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.85

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, RPG
Price point
$5.85 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $5.85.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 529 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Project Sparrow 2022 · EA · $320k AMID EVIL VR 2023 · $157k Skidaddle Skidoodle 2024 · $85k The Last Man Survivor 2025 · $42k Black Dragon Mage 2024 · EA · $25k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Sparrow · EA older $9.99 1,067 88% 32k $320k (exactly $319,780) Inspire Game Studios
AMID EVIL VR older $19.99 262 88% 7.9k $157k (exactly $157,121) Indefatigable, Noah Rayburn, Andre Elij… (Indefatigable, Noah Rayburn, Andre Elijah Immersive)
Skidaddle Skidoodle older $29.99 94 91% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Galactic Geckon
The Last Man Survivor $4.99 279 67% 8.4k $42k (exactly $41,766) Renderise
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Samurai Survivors older $4.99 45 86% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) NightByte Games
War of Wheels · EA $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Dreambits Studio
Keep Defending older $2.99 42 88% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) Faster Time Games
Brutal Wizardry older $19.99 6 50% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Ivan Chernyakov
Boomcestors $4.79 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,868) ZSBuild
Ancestral Players · EA $5.85 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,755) ENSLIP
IM LOOPY FOR DOOP LOOPS!!! $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) JakeHub, Metater
Meet Me In The Well $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Lord Moose Games
Slime Attack: Survivor $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Doomasher Games Studio
Gods Of Fire $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nest of Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.