Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Diplomacy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy

Of 131 developers who shipped a Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 312 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5781 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 312 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 312 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $4.8k → $99k → $9.0k → $13k → $10k → $9.0k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $97k (exactly $97,151)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 464
Announced 312
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 115,182 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $97k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 312 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Diplomacy

13 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Diplomacy + Historical Poor odds $79k 50 devs
  2. Diplomacy + Alternate History Poor odds $79k 30 devs
  3. Diplomacy + Military Poor odds $13k 41 devs
  4. Diplomacy + Medieval Poor odds $9.3k 20 devs
  5. Diplomacy + Space Poor odds $9.0k 14 devs
  6. Diplomacy + Futuristic Poor odds $9.0k 11 devs
  7. Diplomacy + War Poor odds $6.6k 46 devs
  8. Diplomacy + Modern Poor odds $1.9k 13 devs
  9. Diplomacy + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.5k 12 devs
  10. Diplomacy + Capitalism Poor odds $1.2k 24 devs
  11. Diplomacy + Conspiracy Poor odds $538 11 devs
  12. Diplomacy + Fantasy Dead $115k 6 devs
  13. Diplomacy + Cold War Dead $13k 10 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Stellaris 2016 · $210M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.