Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Medieval

Of 20 developers who shipped a Medieval Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×8639 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 71 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 71 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $83k → $116k → $5.4k → $100k → $1.5k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,573)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 70
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Grand Strategy, Life Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 23,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $5.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Medieval Kingdom Wars older $14.99 2,233 76% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) Reverie World Studios
Knights of Honor older $9.99 2,156 92% 65k $646k (exactly $646,153) Black Sea Studios Ltd
King Of The Castle older $9.99 1,403 90% 42k $420k (exactly $420,479) Tributary Games
Great Houses of Calderia older $24.99 411 60% 12k $308k (exactly $308,127) Resistance Games
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
King's Orders $14.99 257 70% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) AFTERLIFE👻
Knights of the Crusades $19.99 166 69% 5.0k $100k (exactly $99,550) Reverie World Studios
Renaissance Kingdom Wars $19.99 141 70% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Reverie World Studios
Settler's Domain $12.49 87 65% 2.6k $33k (exactly $32,599) rick
The Guild 1 Remake: Europa 1410 · EA $29.99 23 60% 690 $21k (exactly $20,693) Ashborne Games
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.