Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven

Of 421 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 722 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1331 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 722 games are announced against 339 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 722 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 421
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $102k → $62k → $15k → $17k → $13k → $13k → $2.7k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 421
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,352)
Top 5% $632k (exactly $632,067)
Developers, 2 yr 421
Released games 559
Announced 722
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 278,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 5 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 722 games are announced against 339 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Bullet Heaven

12 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Bullet Heaven + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $17k 21 devs
  2. Bullet Heaven + Zombies Poor odds $11k 22 devs
  3. Bullet Heaven + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $4.8k 68 devs
  4. Bullet Heaven + Magic Poor odds $4.3k 56 devs
  5. Bullet Heaven + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.3k 28 devs
  6. Bullet Heaven + Fantasy Poor odds $3.4k 106 devs
  7. Bullet Heaven + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 83 devs
  8. Bullet Heaven + Demons Poor odds $1.7k 24 devs
  9. Bullet Heaven + Space Poor odds $1.3k 42 devs
  10. Bullet Heaven + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 22 devs
  11. Bullet Heaven + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.0k 20 devs
  12. Bullet Heaven + Futuristic Poor odds $300 24 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Megabonk 2025 · $30M Neon Abyss 2020 · $19M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.