Should I ship a Baseball game?
Baseball
Of 44 developers who shipped a Baseball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 35 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,486) |
| Top 5% | $671k (exactly $670,729) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 44 |
| Released games | 144 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Baseball
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Baseball
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 10,080 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
All pairs with Baseball
- PvP + Baseball Fair $7.6k
- Baseball + Strategy Fair $7.5k
- Baseball + Simulation Fair $1.8k
- Baseball + Sports Fair $1.2k
- Baseball + Action Fair $1.2k
- Baseball + Arcade Long shot $899
- Baseball + Physics Dead $119
Comparable games
FlatOut 2 2006 · $5.8M 
Super Mega Baseball 3 2020 · $2.5M 
Cricket 22 2021 · $2.3M 
Super Mega Baseball™ 4 2023 · $2.0M 
Backyard Baseball 2026 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FlatOut 2 | older | $9.99 | 19,466 95% | 584k | $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) | Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group) |
| | Super Mega Baseball 3 | older | $44.99 | 1,832 92% | 55k | $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) | Metalhead Software Inc. |
| | Cricket 22 | older | $44.99 | 1,717 81% | 52k | $2.3M (exactly $2,317,435) | Big Ant Studios |
| | Super Mega Baseball™ 4 | older | $49.99 | 1,327 80% | 40k | $2.0M (exactly $1,990,102) | Metalhead Software Inc. |
| | Backyard Baseball | $39.99 | 1,210 80% | 36k | $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) | Mega Cat Studios | |
 | OFF | $14.99 | 3,093 95% | 93k | $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) | Mortis Ghost, Fangamer | |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 26 | $49.99 | 819 82% | 25k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 27 | $49.99 | 475 82% | 14k | $712k (exactly $712,358) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | Backyard Baseball '97 | $9.99 | 2,238 97% | 67k | $671k (exactly $670,729) | Mega Cat Studios | |
 | Titanium Court | $14.99 | 1,094 94% | 33k | $492k (exactly $491,972) | AP Thomson | |
 | Backyard Baseball '01 | $9.99 | 662 92% | 20k | $198k (exactly $198,401) | Mega Cat Studios | |
 | Snoopy & The Great Mystery Club | $39.99 | 62 90% | 1.9k | $74k (exactly $74,381) | Cradle Games | |
 | Donuts for Deer Teeth | $6.99 | 192 98% | 5.8k | $40k (exactly $40,262) | posmnaut, Hefty Totem, BirdLovely, Mizu… (posmnaut, Hefty Totem, BirdLovely, MizuBlackRiver, Prahno Audio) | |
 | Super Psycho Baseball | $4.99 | 235 92% | 7.1k | $35k (exactly $35,180) | internetcharles |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.