Do I ship it?

GamesBaseballBaseball + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Baseball game?

Baseball + Physics

Only 8 developers shipped a Physics Baseball game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Super Psycho Baseball, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Baseball + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Baseball + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $35,180)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 26
Announced 10
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Baseball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Baseball, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 20,715 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Baseball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + StrategyFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  3. + SimulationFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + SportsFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  5. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 12 announced

All 6 pairs on the Baseball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
iB Cricket · EA older $29.99 124 91% 3.7k $112k (exactly $111,563) ProYuga Advanced Technologies Ltd
Super Psycho Baseball $4.99 235 92% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,180) internetcharles
Indoor Kickball older $14.99 47 78% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Snow Day Software
Rocket Skates VR older $9.99 53 81% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,884) EpiXR Games UG
Indoor Baseball $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Snow Day Software
漂流瓶盖 Drifting Bottle Cap older $5.99 33 90% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) 馆叔, 猫多游戏
Power of Petanque older $6.07 23 100% 690 $4.2k (exactly $4,188) Waïju
2D Baseball Duel older $2.99 17 82% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Largemann
Tabletop Baseball $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Dumb Duck Games
Bat & Ball $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) BritishInteractive
Yips! $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) C.S.G
Bubble Ball! $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Isaac Madsen
Physics Puzzle Ball $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DotDot Games
Pickleball $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Viniot Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.