Do I ship it?

Games › Baseball › Baseball + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Baseball game?

Baseball + Simulation

Of 21 developers who shipped a Simulation Baseball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 12 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 12 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Baseball + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $420k → $598 → $2.2k → $899 → $2.4k → $898 → $3.6k (still earning) → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Baseball + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $671k (exactly $670,729)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 63
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Baseball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Baseball, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Strategy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.95 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Family Friendly, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.95 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Baseball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + StrategyFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  3. + SportsFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  4. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + ArcadeLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  6. + PhysicsDead8 devs · median $119 · 10 announced

All 6 pairs on the Baseball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Super Mega Baseball 3 2020 · $2.5M Cricket 22 2021 · $2.3M Super Mega Baseball™ 4 2023 · $2.0M Backyard Baseball 2026 · $1.5M Out of the Park Baseball 26 2025 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Cricket 22 older $44.99 1,717 81% 52k $2.3M (exactly $2,317,435) Big Ant Studios
Super Mega Baseball™ 4 older $49.99 1,327 80% 40k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,102) Metalhead Software Inc.
Backyard Baseball $39.99 1,210 80% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) Mega Cat Studios
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Backyard Baseball '97 $9.99 2,238 97% 67k $671k (exactly $670,729) Mega Cat Studios
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Super Mega Baseball: Extra Innings older $12.99 723 91% 22k $282k (exactly $281,753) Metalhead Software Inc.
Backyard Baseball '01 $9.99 662 92% 20k $198k (exactly $198,401) Mega Cat Studios
College Baseball: Dynasty Builder $24.99 34 97% 1.0k $25k (exactly $25,490) Rainey Studios
Digital Diamond Baseball V13 $29.99 27 88% 810 $24k (exactly $24,292) Curiosity Computing
Game Pulse Payoff Pitch $49.95 9 66% 270 $13k (exactly $13,486) Fireside Experience
Road to Omaha: College Baseball Dynasty $19.99 13 69% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Brent Lane
Hakoniwa Base Ball $9.99 25 100% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Alybe Aria

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.