Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Action-Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure

Of 5,114 developers who shipped an Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10,516 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×702 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 10,516 games are announced against 2,831 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 10,516 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5,114
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.4k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $899 → $659 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5,114
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,934)
Top 5% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Developers, 2 yr 5,114
Released games 15,775
Announced 10,516
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 776,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 3,097 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10,516 games are announced against 2,831 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Action-Adventure

70 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Action-Adventure + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 688 devs
  2. Action-Adventure + Underwater Poor odds $898 57 devs
  3. Action-Adventure + Mystery Poor odds $839 771 devs
  4. Action-Adventure + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $839 112 devs
  5. Action-Adventure + Demons Poor odds $809 294 devs
  6. Action-Adventure + Psychological Poor odds $807 261 devs
  7. Action-Adventure + Magic Poor odds $748 444 devs
  8. Action-Adventure + Medieval Poor odds $719 417 devs
  9. Action-Adventure + Noir Poor odds $719 61 devs
  10. Action-Adventure + Conspiracy Poor odds $657 63 devs
  11. Action-Adventure + Futuristic Poor odds $628 291 devs
  12. Action-Adventure + Dragons Poor odds $628 60 devs
  13. Action-Adventure + Aliens Poor odds $599 197 devs
  14. Action-Adventure + Science Poor odds $599 47 devs
  15. Action-Adventure + Nature Poor odds $594 337 devs
  16. Action-Adventure + Dogs Poor odds $594 49 devs
  17. Action-Adventure + Ninja Poor odds $537 43 devs
  18. Action-Adventure + Military Poor odds $450 101 devs
  19. Action-Adventure + Animals Poor odds $450 24 devs
  20. Action-Adventure + Mars Dead $150 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.