Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Futuristic

Of 291 developers who shipped a Futuristic Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 734 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×504 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 734 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 734 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 291
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.2k → $599 → $599 → $600 → $1.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 291
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,120)
Top 5% $317k (exactly $316,642)
Developers, 2 yr 291
Released games 895
Announced 734
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 198,077 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 734 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.