Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Ninja

Of 43 developers who shipped a Ninja Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9M, ×7854 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 96 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 96 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $1.6k → $899 → $2.1k → $3.0k → $537 → $359 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 183
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Swordplay
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Third Person, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 49,831 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $4.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder's Revenge older $24.99 12,961 94% 389k $9.7M (exactly $9,716,862) Tribute Games Inc.
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS older $59.99 3,881 62% 116k $7.0M (exactly $6,984,636) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM Revolution older $29.99 7,228 84% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,503,032) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
The Messenger older $19.99 10,711 92% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,423,387) Sabotage
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Yasuke Simulator $6.99 1,925 97% 58k $404k (exactly $403,672) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
The Spirit of the Samurai $19.99 413 59% 12k $248k (exactly $247,676) Digital Mind Games
Eye of the Commando · EA $14.99 34 100% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Adventurepro Games LLC
The Last Ninja Collection + Bonus Games $29.99 16 100% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) System 3 Software
Ninja Ordinance $13.99 34 73% 1.0k $14k (exactly $14,270) OneCoin
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.