Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Mystery

Of 771 developers who shipped a Mystery Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,552 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×356 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,552 games are announced against 403 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,552 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 771
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.3k → $899 → $1.6k → $1.2k → $719 → $718 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 771
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,455)
Developers, 2 yr 771
Released games 1,979
Announced 1,552
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 39,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $840, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 434 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,552 games are announced against 403 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
Judgment older $39.99 9,407 93% 282k $11M (exactly $11,285,578) RGG Studio
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter older $29.99 12,076 80% 362k $11M (exactly $10,864,777) Frogwares
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition $39.99 1,484 78% 45k $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) Myrkur Games
Slitterhead $49.99 1,145 78% 34k $1.7M (exactly $1,717,156) Bokeh Game Studio lnc.
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.