Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Nature

Of 337 developers who shipped a Nature Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 803 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $590, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×488 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 803 games are announced against 192 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 803 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 337
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $900 → $599 → $599 → $628 → $899 → $599 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 337
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $594 (exactly $594)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $306k (exactly $306,447)
Developers, 2 yr 337
Released games 955
Announced 803
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 33,326 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $590, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 187 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 803 games are announced against 192 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
The Gunk older $24.99 4,744 86% 142k $3.6M (exactly $3,556,577) Image & Form Games
My Little Puppy $24.99 4,435 97% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,920) Dreamotion Inc.
Sword of the Sea $29.99 1,638 89% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,473,709) Giant Squid
Dinoblade $19.99 2,420 90% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) Team Spino LLC
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.