Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Western

Only 17 developers shipped a Western Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nightmare Frontier, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×223 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $29k → $9.6k → $1.6k → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,194)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 42
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,012 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
DEAD END COLOSSEUM SS $10.99 138 83% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,499) TLACHTLI
Brawl To The West $8.99 139 71% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) GagaRush
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Barrel Roll $4.99 188 96% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Barrel Roll
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Rootin' Tootin' Lootin' & Shootin' $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Raspberry Jam
Risk & Riches $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Growlery Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.