Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Trading

Of 27 developers who shipped a Trading Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $72k, ×116 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 75 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 75 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $4.0k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,391)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $72,887)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 70
Announced 75
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Trading; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 553 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $72k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vagrus - The Riven Realms older $29.99 1,746 84% 52k $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) Lost Pilgrims Studio
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Imperiums: Greek Wars older $29.99 453 83% 14k $408k (exactly $407,564) Kube Games
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
The Emperor and State · EA older $14.99 314 55% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) 涂途
Merchant of the Six Kingdoms older $14.99 221 91% 6.6k $99k (exactly $99,384) Cory Long
Caravaneer 2 older $5.99 535 94% 16k $96k (exactly $96,140) Dmitry Zheltobriukhov
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Bonnie Bear Saves Frogtime $16.99 143 98% 4.3k $73k (exactly $72,887) Bonte Avond
SELF MADE: Investment Life Sim $14.99 52 84% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Billmeade Gaming
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Governor $15.99 30 76% 900 $14k (exactly $14,391) Daniling
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel
Commander Bug Wars $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) GoldenGod Games
Exodus: The Colonization of Space $6.99 19 100% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) Artex

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.