Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Tower Defense

Of 65 developers who shipped a Tower Defense Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×813 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 75 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $1.8k → $1.9k → $6.0k → $6.7k → $8.1k → $2.9k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,380)
Top 5% $511k (exactly $510,859)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 150
Announced 75
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Tower Defense; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,505 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M Nordhold 2025 · $1.7M Border Pioneer 2025 · $753k Deck of Haunts 2025 · $723k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Resist the succubus—The end of the female Knight older $16.99 1,370 74% 41k $698k (exactly $698,289) BoRoBoRoGame
Rock of Ages 3: Make & Break older $14.99 1,259 78% 38k $566k (exactly $566,172) ACE Team, Giant Monkey Robot
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Home Wars older $9.99 1,141 78% 34k $342k (exactly $341,958) Insane Dreamers
Variables 2 older $14.99 418 90% 13k $188k (exactly $187,975) Asteroid Game Studio
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
These Doomed Isles $14.99 180 66% 5.4k $81k (exactly $80,946) Triplevision Games Limited
Rogue Realm: Guardian Grids $12.99 104 72% 3.1k $41k (exactly $40,529) YogurtGames
Islets Defense $9.99 129 94% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) MiniGoof

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.