Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Twin Stick Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Twin Stick Shooter Survival game?

Survival + Twin Stick Shooter

Of 73 developers who shipped a Twin Stick Shooter Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 80 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 80 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Twin Stick Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $4.2k → $449 → $1.8k → $3.9k → $898 → $300 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Twin Stick Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 5% $146k (exactly $145,954)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 198
Announced 80
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Twin Stick Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Twin Stick Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,500 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $960, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Hatred older $5.99 25,770 84% 773k $4.6M (exactly $4,630,869) Destructive Creations
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
West of Dead older $19.99 1,289 76% 39k $773k (exactly $773,013) Upstream Arcade
Decision: Red Daze older $19.99 855 74% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) FlyAnvil
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
CPU Invaders older $29.99 496 86% 15k $446k (exactly $446,251) Microblast Games
Hell is Others older $14.99 991 73% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) Strelka Games, Yonder
Yet Another Zombie Defense HD older $3.99 2,561 84% 77k $307k (exactly $306,552) Awesome Games Studio
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
The Ember Guardian $19.99 278 82% 8.3k $167k (exactly $166,717) Ratbit Games
Entropy Survivors $9.99 487 80% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) Moving Pieces Interactive
The Horde Wants You Dead $9.99 270 64% 8.1k $81k (exactly $80,919) Bellyflop Games
Pinball Storm: Lokanta $5.99 434 70% 13k $78k (exactly $77,990) Aastral Dynamics
Raining Blood: Hellfire $7.99 198 89% 5.9k $47k (exactly $47,461) TechBooh
Where the forest ends $9.99 132 68% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,560) MonkeyBassGames
Kritter: Defend Together $9.99 109 86% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) LJF Games
Arcadium - Space Odyssey $7.99 110 93% 3.3k $26k (exactly $26,367) Luciano Bercini

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.