Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Survival game?

Survival + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 78 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1454 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 159 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 159 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $2.1k → $599 → $5.4k → $36k → $360 → $987 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $913k (exactly $913,196)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 267
Announced 159
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 20,356 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Wasteland 2: Director's Cut older $29.99 4,664 82% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,196,201) inXile Entertainment
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.