Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Survival game?

Survival + Turn-Based Combat

Of 64 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 147 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 147 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $2.1k → $5.1k → $5.4k → $6.1k → $479 → $5.0k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,887)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,853)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 225
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,228 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Home Behind 2 older $19.99 6,585 86% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,949,024) TPP Studio
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG older $29.99 4,193 77% 126k $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) Dark Crystal Games
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Edge Islands · EA $17.99 93 74% 2.8k $50k (exactly $50,192) LS Games
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Mirklurk: Every Step Matters · EA $11.99 101 95% 3.0k $36k (exactly $36,330) Edym Pixels
Neuroshima Hex $9.99 93 72% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Baked Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.