Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Survival game?

Survival + Transportation

Only 16 developers shipped a Transportation Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SAND: Raiders of Sophie, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14904 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 500% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $3.6k → $429k → $284k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $429k (exactly $429,464)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 33
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Transportation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 35,177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator · EA older $19.99 1,835 91% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,100,450) Pentacle
Overcrowd: A Commute 'Em Up older $19.99 1,701 81% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,020,090) SquarePlay Games
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
The Slaverian Trucker $11.99 789 85% 24k $284k (exactly $283,803) SawyerK Games
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
CHEMISTS: Dead Zone · EA $15.99 24 62% 720 $12k (exactly $11,513) RPAX GAMING
Storm Horse Simulator $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) INDIE FORGE STUDIOS S.R.L.
GOVNOVOZ $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) KaiserGames
Zompizza : The Last Delivery $4.99 23 91% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Broken Toilet Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.