Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Survival game?

Survival + Traditional Roguelike

Of 38 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 45 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $322k → $179 → $1.2k → $570 → $719 → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $142k (exactly $142,358)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 68
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 12,862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M UnReal World 2016 · $532k The Doors of Trithius 2021 · EA · $438k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
The Doors of Trithius · EA older $14.99 973 93% 29k $438k (exactly $437,558) Jake Donkersgoed
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Cataclysm: Dark Days Ahead older $19.99 537 86% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) CleverRaven
Wayward · EA older $7.99 1,213 86% 36k $291k (exactly $290,756) Unlok
Shattered Planet older $14.99 406 68% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) Kitfox Games
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp
Cataclysm: The Last Generation $6.99 281 89% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,926) Worm Girl
Girl Frame $14.99 69 68% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Meow Run, Cat Shine
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Seven Blasphemies $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Crit42 Studio
Dead Soul TowerDefense:Shadow Labyrinth $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) HY Indie Game
Meow Tower - Doomsguard $9.99 12 41% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) maoyoufang
Azure Dragon's Treasure And 999 Days of Survival $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Moyu Studio
Tavrik $11.99 6 100% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Nyra Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.