Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Survival game?

Survival + Trading

Of 42 developers who shipped a Trading Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×482 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 103 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 103 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $6.0k → $2.4k → $4.8k → $2.4k → $6.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,093)
Top 5% $303k (exactly $302,981)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 99
Announced 103
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 7,355 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Interstellar Rift older $19.99 1,411 66% 42k $846k (exactly $846,177) Split Polygon
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Super Movie Tycoon $16.99 323 73% 9.7k $165k (exactly $164,633) Yuedong Game
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Union Of Rivals · EA $25.49 31 64% 930 $24k (exactly $23,706) 2Play

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.