Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Survival game?

Survival + Time Manipulation

Only 17 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Time Flies, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×265 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $2.1k → $987 → $2.2k → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $166k (exactly $166,389)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 59
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Time Manipulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Physics, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Philosophical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 492 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $750, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Metel - Horror Escape · EA older $2.99 2,304 93% 69k $207k (exactly $206,669) Linked Squad
Time Flies $14.99 370 96% 11k $166k (exactly $166,389) Playables
PERIMETER: Legate Edition older $9.99 143 92% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) K-D Lab
Cube Land Arena older $4.99 279 66% 8.4k $42k (exactly $41,766) Jaison Robson Gusava, SC Jogos
Winds & Leaves older $29.99 28 64% 840 $25k (exactly $25,192) TREBUCHET
Ninja Legends older $19.99 40 95% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Coinflip Studios
Huge Jaws older $24.99 23 65% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Piece Of Voxel
Oakenfold older $19.99 24 70% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Rutger van Dijk
Loser Simulator older $1.99 89 86% 2.7k $5.3k (exactly $5,313) Frosted Wings Studio
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
KeyBreach $4.99 21 95% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) sawworm Games
Rogum A Cat Match Puzzle $5.99 16 100% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) DevGamesRo
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy
Age of Damnation $6.99 6 33% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) WukaStudio
Anaria $2.99 11 54% 330 $987 (exactly $987) VOIDEMBER
Miryam: The Polluted Land $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) 6.5F Studio
Layers of Bust $8.99 2 50% 60 $539 (exactly $539) CupCupMug

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.