Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Tactical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical Survival game?

Survival + Tactical

Of 246 developers who shipped a Tactical Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 454 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 454 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 454 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Tactical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 246
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.8k → $772 → $300 → $2.6k → $479 → $718 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Tactical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 246
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 246
Released games 781
Announced 454
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Tactical; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 110,087 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 128 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 454 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Counter-Strike: Source older $9.99 135,448 96% 4.1M $41M (exactly $40,593,766) Valve
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version $29.99 2,315 96% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) KONAMI
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.