Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Supernatural

Of 25 developers who shipped a Supernatural Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 50 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 50 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $3.8k → $2.4k → $4.2k → $898 → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,302)
Top 5% $55k (exactly $55,034)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 54
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, RPG, Card Battler
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 580 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Echo Generation: Midnight Edition older $24.99 155 92% 4.7k $116k (exactly $116,204) Cococucumber
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Breath of Death VII: The Beginning: Reanimated $4.99 53 86% 1.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,934) Shadow Layer Games LLC
DeckLand · EA $14.99 13 92% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) JellySnow Studio
Battle Of The Abyss $4.99 33 93% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) 1029studio
Trial of Ariah $11.95 12 91% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,302) 30 Minute Games
Desideratum: Blood Bonds · EA $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Anaximanes Entertainment
Legend of the Wargod · EA $22.99 5 100% 150 $3.4k (exactly $3,448) Revelen
Axe Ghost $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Tomasz Kaye

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.