Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Superhero

Only 8 developers shipped a Superhero Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nova Hearts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $600 against a market of $1.5k. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 6 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $4.2k → $60 → $59
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 5% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 28
Announced 6
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 18,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $600, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
X-Angels older $10.99 614 89% 18k $202k (exactly $202,436) Barance Studio
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
ZHP: Unlosing Ranger vs. Darkdeath Evilman older $19.99 55 83% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Codeglue
Sentinels of Earth-Prime older $17.99 45 86% 1.4k $24k (exactly $24,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
FAS: Fight Action Sandbox older $6.99 69 63% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Vona Soft
Giggle Night: Trixie's Trial · EA $19.99 16 81% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Anaximanes Entertainment
CyberHoney older $4.99 28 46% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) aliothgame
HyperLeague Heroes older $2.99 36 69% 1.1k $3.2k (exactly $3,229) Siphon Shock
FULL BET - FIGHTING CASINO - $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) FlatMountain
Tower Survivor $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DIG Games
武道传说 League of Fighters $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) LINWENJIAN
Specter: The Battle of the Mind $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) AlguemBonitinho
破环者 LoopBreaker $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 白哥制作
Archomni 2: Mondus Maxima $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DIONYSIOS DIAMANTOPOULOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.