Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Word Game

Of 26 developers who shipped a Word Game Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $830, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $35k, ×57 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $327 → $7.2k → $22k → $270 → $832 → $4.6k → $629 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $832 (exactly $832)
Top 25% $3.5k (exactly $3,522)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $35,778)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 61
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Word Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 890 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $830, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Immortal Family older $13.99 1,213 54% 36k $509k (exactly $509,096) 一起来修仙工作室
灵墟 older $10.99 946 86% 28k $312k (exactly $311,896) HappyTall Game
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Lost:Antinomy older $2.99 1,042 88% 31k $93k (exactly $93,467) IMaiIna
Idle Land of Exile $4.99 239 68% 7.2k $36k (exactly $35,778) 所以然
場外人生 · EA older $2.99 315 90% 9.5k $28k (exactly $28,256) YuruOwO
New ZhaoYun older $29.99 25 44% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) XBZYZ Game
神魔山海经 Gods Monster $11.99 57 59% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) 红尘背包客
Eternal Sword Tomb · EA $8.99 68 77% 2.0k $18k (exactly $18,340) 阿郎
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Harem Of Three Thousand $10.99 14 85% 420 $4.6k (exactly $4,616) LumiMaker
Runren Simulator $1.99 59 91% 1.8k $3.5k (exactly $3,522) K.K.
16叠谋杀之谜 $1.99 33 60% 990 $2.0k (exactly $1,970) 糯米团子工作室
Idle Hero Siege $3.99 14 42% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) 光鸽
FootballLife $17.99 3 33% 90 $1.6k (exactly $1,619) 小伍

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.