Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Turn-Based Tactics?

Strategy RPG + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 377 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 792 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×1229 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 792 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 792 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 377
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $14k → $6.6k → $5.4k → $2.5k → $7.2k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 377
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,949)
Top 5% $772k (exactly $771,530)
Developers, 2 yr 377
Released games 1,150
Announced 792
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 84,432 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 191 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 792 games are announced against 220 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.