Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Traditional Roguelike

Of 31 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×165 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 47 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $7.8k → $239 → $150 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,880)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,431)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 57
Announced 47
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 190% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Traditional Roguelike; all of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,320 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Prime of Flames older $9.99 923 84% 28k $277k (exactly $276,623) RAYKA STUDIO
Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos older $19.99 429 47% 13k $257k (exactly $257,271) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysz… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez, Bastian von Gostomski, Carola Sochiera, Björn Loesing)
Rogue Fable III older $9.99 725 92% 22k $217k (exactly $217,282) Pixel Forge Games
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Mortal Glory older $7.99 553 86% 17k $133k (exactly $132,554) Redbeak Games
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
Rogue Fable IV · EA older $11.99 236 94% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,889) Pixel Forge Games
XenoWorld ~The Rondeau of Astra~ older $10.99 112 75% 3.4k $37k (exactly $36,926) IMaiIna_, INA
Indies' Lies 2: Fire Seed $14.99 73 67% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) Fun Square Games
Lucha Chess · EA $8.99 60 86% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,182) Jorge T.V.
Dark Bone Prison $5.99 84 95% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) Bunny Moon Shady
Boardlike · EA $12.99 27 70% 810 $11k (exactly $10,522) Bozz
Deadzoned · EA $4.99 66 98% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) caiys
鸭鸭大冒险 (Duck Duck Adventure) $8.99 29 93% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) 清友工作室
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.