Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Trading

Of 36 developers who shipped a Trading Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1956 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 72 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $628 → $5.4k → $2.3k → $838 → $2.5k (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,830)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 79
Announced 72
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Trading; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 4,880 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Vagrus - The Riven Realms older $29.99 1,746 84% 52k $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) Lost Pilgrims Studio
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
SAELIG · EA older $14.99 1,124 86% 34k $505k (exactly $505,463) Atorcoppe Games
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Between Adventures IDLE · EA $7.99 319 71% 9.6k $76k (exactly $76,464) Loop Forge
Bonnie Bear Saves Frogtime $16.99 143 98% 4.3k $73k (exactly $72,887) Bonte Avond
Glimvale : My Mini Overworld $5.99 100 92% 3.0k $18k (exactly $17,970) Milkshake Games
Business War: ERP Sandbox Simulation $15.99 33 84% 990 $16k (exactly $15,830) 夜与潜伏者
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.