Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Survival game?

Survival + Strategy RPG

Of 103 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 190 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2218 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 190 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 190 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $624 → $1.8k → $899 → $5.1k → $1.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,311)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 255
Announced 190
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 21,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 190 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Kenshi 2018 · $89M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M Dungeon Defenders 2011 · $5.5M Town of Salem 2014 · $4.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Dungeon Defenders older $14.99 12,148 93% 364k $5.5M (exactly $5,462,956) Chromatic Games
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Machine Mind $19.99 567 71% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) Chudo-Yudo Games
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.