Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Female Protagonist

Of 45 developers who shipped a Female-Led Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1018 the market median. Revenue is up 1545% on the market; 86 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1545% on the market, 86 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $6.0k → $6.7k → $809 → $6.2k → $6.5k → $105k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $103,431)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 137
Announced 86
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1545% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Hack and Slash
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 13,637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced
  12. + NinjaPoor odds12 devs · median $6.6k · 18 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
Bayonetta older $19.99 27,380 92% 821k $16M (exactly $16,419,786) PlatinumGames
Devil May Cry 4 Special Edition older $24.99 16,972 87% 509k $13M (exactly $12,723,908) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
RWBY: Grimm Eclipse older $19.99 9,834 81% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,897,450) Rooster Teeth Games, FarBridge
ANNO: Mutationem older $24.99 5,833 80% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,373,000) ThinkingStars
LOLLIPOP CHAINSAW RePOP older $44.99 2,657 88% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,586,153) DRAGAMI GAMES, LTD.
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight older $9.99 10,502 93% 315k $3.1M (exactly $3,147,449) Bombservice
LIZARDS MUST DIE older $3.99 23,315 96% 699k $2.8M (exactly $2,790,806) Smola Game Studio
FATAL FURY: City of the Wolves $19.99 3,135 82% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,880,059) SNK CORPORATION
Homura Hime $24.99 2,316 90% 69k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,305) Crimson Dusk
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
Mahou Arms $39.99 618 73% 19k $741k (exactly $741,415) Dischan Media
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
1348 Ex Voto $24.99 705 53% 21k $529k (exactly $528,538) Sedleo
BEYBLADE X XONE $49.99 162 79% 4.9k $243k (exactly $242,951) 株式会社グルーブボックスジャパン
Divinum $14.99 525 85% 16k $236k (exactly $236,092) Sigil Games
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.