Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Sci-fi

Of 48 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×1570 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 82 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $35k → $76k → $3.0k → $109k → $20k → $28k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,575)
Median $17k (exactly $16,539)
Top 25% $166k (exactly $165,572)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 133
Announced 82
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 21,325 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  8. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced
  12. + NinjaPoor odds12 devs · median $6.6k · 18 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
CRISIS CORE –FINAL FANTASY VII– REUNION older $49.99 6,949 89% 208k $10M (exactly $10,421,415) Square Enix, TOSE CO., LTD.
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ANNO: Mutationem older $24.99 5,833 80% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,373,000) ThinkingStars
LIZARDS MUST DIE older $3.99 23,315 96% 699k $2.8M (exactly $2,790,806) Smola Game Studio
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Mahou Arms $39.99 618 73% 19k $741k (exactly $741,415) Dischan Media
Metal Bringer $19.99 1,109 87% 33k $665k (exactly $665,067) ALPHAWING Inc.
GODBREAKERS $19.99 813 70% 24k $488k (exactly $487,556) To The Sky
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.