Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Space Sim?

Space Sim + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 17 developers shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Approaching Infinity, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $45k → $7.5k → $2.7k → $599 (still earning) → $132 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $535 (exactly $535)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,547)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $390,203)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 46
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,036 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Deep Space Battle Simulator older $9.99 358 78% 11k $107k (exactly $107,293) yeswecamp
Space Wreck older $16.99 170 88% 5.1k $87k (exactly $86,649) Pahris Entertainment SIA
Lord of Rigel older $19.99 113 69% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) Rhombus Studios
Flotilla older $9.99 202 83% 6.1k $61k (exactly $60,539) Blendo Games
Deck & Conn $14.99 110 74% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,467) Funtime Electrics
Space Cats Tactics older $14.99 100 74% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Mitzi Games, Alex Nicola
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Stellar Sovereigns older $24.99 20 55% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) Imagined Reality
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Galactic Simulator2: Stargate $5.99 42 78% 1.3k $7.5k (exactly $7,547) PcZ Games
Star Titans : War of the Galaxy $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Mediawork
Exodus: The Colonization of Space $6.99 19 100% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) Artex
Star Scum · EA $14.99 6 83% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Soft Realm
Hired Stars · EA $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Mark Kaps
Cosmic Outpost $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Gökdeniz Yılmaz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.