Do I ship it?

Games › Space Sim › Space Sim + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Space Sim?

Space Sim + Turn-Based Combat

Only 11 developers shipped a Turn-Based Combat Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deck & Conn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $49k, ×79 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 7 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $87k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $0 (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $49,467)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 33
Announced 7
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 86% positive over 264 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $49k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Star Traders: Frontiers 2018 · $1.7M Dust Fleet 2023 · $116k Deep Space Battle Simulator 2021 · $107k Space Wreck 2023 · $87k Flotilla 2010 · $61k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Dust Fleet older $19.99 193 76% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Orbiting Disco
Deep Space Battle Simulator older $9.99 358 78% 11k $107k (exactly $107,293) yeswecamp
Space Wreck older $16.99 170 88% 5.1k $87k (exactly $86,649) Pahris Entertainment SIA
Flotilla older $9.99 202 83% 6.1k $61k (exactly $60,539) Blendo Games
Deck & Conn $14.99 110 74% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,467) Funtime Electrics
Space Cats Tactics older $14.99 100 74% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Mitzi Games, Alex Nicola
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Forsaken Portals older $18.99 24 75% 720 $14k (exactly $13,673) Pottgames
Star Titans : War of the Galaxy $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Mediawork
Star Scum · EA $14.99 6 83% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Soft Realm
Epic Space Trader · EA $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Digital Tectonics, LLC
Star Fleet Deluxe $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Trevor Sorensen
GALAXY WARS Ⅱ $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) JIT Inc
Cosmo Strike: Complete Edition $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Nikspeaks
Reactor Critical $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Terran Future Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.