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Should I ship a Trading Space Sim?
Space Sim + Trading
Of 24 developers who shipped a Trading Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 66 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,748) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 75 |
| Announced | 66 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 400% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Space Sim, Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Mining, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 5,724 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DestructionFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + WarFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SportsFair
- + DiplomacyLong shot
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
Comparable games
Elite Dangerous 2015 · $49M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Avorion 2020 · $9.7M 
X Rebirth 2013 · $4.6M 
Rebel Galaxy 2015 · $4.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elite Dangerous | older | $19.99 | 82,399 76% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,414,680) | Frontier Developments |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
| | X Rebirth | older | $29.99 | 5,156 42% | 155k | $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) | Egosoft |
| | Rebel Galaxy | older | $19.99 | 7,255 85% | 218k | $4.4M (exactly $4,350,824) | Double Damage Games |
 | Starpoint Gemini 2 | older | $34.99 | 3,021 70% | 91k | $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) | Little Green Men Games |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Star Traders: Frontiers | older | $14.99 | 3,672 83% | 110k | $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) | Trese Brothers |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | X3: Terran Conflict | older | $15.99 | 2,090 84% | 63k | $1.0M (exactly $1,002,573) | Egosoft |
 | Vanguard Galaxy | · EA | $8.99 | 565 90% | 17k | $152k (exactly $152,380) | Bat Roost Games |
 | Stellar Wanderer DX | $19.99 | 60 71% | 1.8k | $36k (exactly $35,982) | Dream Builder Studios | |
 | Deep Space Outpost | $15.99 | 32 71% | 960 | $15k (exactly $15,350) | Niris Games | |
 | Warp to Sector One | · EA | $11.99 | 41 92% | 1.2k | $15k (exactly $14,748) | hextor.Games |
 | Stellar outpost commander | $8.99 | 30 83% | 900 | $8.1k (exactly $8,091) | Kinderril | |
 | Space Supermarket Simulator | $9.99 | 16 75% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | Mythforge Games | |
 | Exodus: The Colonization of Space | $6.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) | Artex | |
 | The EverFloating Island | $19.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $3.6k (exactly $3,598) | GU GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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