Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Space Sim?

Space Sim + Spaceships

Of 28 developers who shipped a Spaceship Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 43 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $539 → $416 → $1.5k → $6.3k → $899 (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,819)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 88
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 11,194 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Cosmoteer: Starship Architect & Commander · EA older $19.99 12,013 94% 360k $7.2M (exactly $7,204,196) Walternate Realities
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Spaceflight Simulator · EA older $14.99 9,431 96% 283k $4.2M (exactly $4,241,121) Team Curiosity ✦
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Quantum Void $11.99 69 95% 2.1k $25k (exactly $24,819) TacNours
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Space Sex Lab 🚀 $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) TheBigO Games
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.