Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Sniper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sniper FPS?

FPS + Sniper

Of 36 developers who shipped a Sniper FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 57 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 50% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Sniper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $594 → $2.5k → $1.8k → $10k → $779 → $4.6k → $600 (still earning) → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Sniper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 5% $481k (exactly $480,959)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 184
Announced 57
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Sniper; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 62,677 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Sniper Elite 5 2022 · $37M Zombie Army Trilogy 2015 · $19M Sniper Elite 3 2014 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Zombie Army Trilogy older $44.99 14,285 85% 429k $19M (exactly $19,280,464) Rebellion
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Sniper Killer $11.99 618 86% 19k $222k (exactly $222,295) Black Eyed Priest, Henry Hoare
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Pih 2 $9.99 384 92% 12k $115k (exactly $115,085) BecomeANobody
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Furry Aim Trainer $0.99 1,585 93% 48k $47k (exactly $47,074) Pantsu Productions
DeadCore Redux $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) 5 Bits Games
Source Code $19.99 33 60% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Blitzball.Inc
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.