Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Sniper game?

Sniper + Military

Of 28 developers who shipped a Military Sniper game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $7.2M, ×11522 the market median. Revenue is up 2480% on the market; 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 2480% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $683 → $2.5k → $1.2k → $3.0k → $3.2k → $210 → $4.3k (still earning) → $481k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 118
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2480% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 64,428 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + TacticalPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  6. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  7. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  9. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  10. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced
  12. + PvEPoor odds11 devs · median $300 · 25 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 2021 · $15M Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2019 · $9.9M Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 2017 · $9.1M Sniper Elite: Resistance 2025 · $7.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
Tactical Assault VR · EA older $19.99 3,375 77% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,023,987) HammerFire Interactive
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Sniper Elite older $7.99 3,579 76% 107k $858k (exactly $857,886) Rebellion
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Source Code $19.99 33 60% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Blitzball.Inc
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Gun Reflex VR $8.99 42 61% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) OBGames
Shoot The Barrels $1.99 103 72% 3.1k $6.1k (exactly $6,149) BATTLE LAB
Catboy Aim Trainer · EA $0.99 148 93% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,396) Pantsu Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.