Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sniper Tactical game?

Sniper + Tactical

Of 22 developers who shipped a Sniper Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×766 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + Tactical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $748 → $43k → $4.4k → $779 → $240 → $2.2k (still earning) → $481k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + Tactical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,495)
Top 5% $481k (exactly $480,959)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 89
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper, Tactical; all of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 60,207 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + MilitaryPoor odds28 devs · median $3.0k · 38 announced
  4. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  6. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  7. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  9. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  10. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  11. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced
  12. + PvEPoor odds11 devs · median $300 · 25 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Sniper Elite 3 2014 · $19M Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 2021 · $15M Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2019 · $9.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Sniper Elite V2 Remastered older $34.99 3,437 78% 103k $3.6M (exactly $3,607,819) Rebellion
Tactical Assault VR · EA older $19.99 3,375 77% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,023,987) HammerFire Interactive
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
Pirate Hunter $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) DIOsoft
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
Catboy Aim Trainer · EA $0.99 148 93% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,396) Pantsu Productions
MARKSMAN VR · EA $8.99 16 31% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Crimson Gate
Bedroom Battlegrounds $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) WCHC
Cat's Wars · EA $1.99 37 81% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Antelus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.