Do I ship it?

Games › Sniper › Sniper + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Sniper game?

Sniper + Simulation

Only 11 developers shipped a Simulation Sniper game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WARDOGS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 4200% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 4200% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sniper + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $1.0k → $3.6k → $10k → $13k → $0 (still earning) → $481k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sniper + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,323)
Top 5% $70M (exactly $69,882,525)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 77
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4200% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sniper
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sniper, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 59,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $69M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sniper with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiFair9 devs · median $600 · 10 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot20 devs · median $300 · 14 announced
  3. + MilitaryPoor odds28 devs · median $3.0k · 38 announced
  4. + TacticalPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Action-AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  6. + FPSPoor odds36 devs · median $899 · 57 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds24 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  8. + Bullet TimePoor odds8 devs · median $899 · 6 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds12 devs · median $779 · 22 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds55 devs · median $600 · 84 announced
  11. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $600 · 11 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds69 devs · median $598 · 89 announced

All 36 pairs on the Sniper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Sniper Elite 3 2014 · $19M Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 2013 · $4.1M Tactical Assault VR 2023 · EA · $2.0M Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2010 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Sniper: Ghost Warrior 2 older $9.99 13,694 75% 411k $4.1M (exactly $4,104,092) City Interactive
Tactical Assault VR · EA older $19.99 3,375 77% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,023,987) HammerFire Interactive
Sniper: Ghost Warrior older $7.99 5,723 58% 172k $1.4M (exactly $1,371,803) City Interactive
Sniper Elite older $7.99 3,579 76% 107k $858k (exactly $857,886) Rebellion
SpyParty · EA older $24.99 1,140 77% 34k $855k (exactly $854,658) Chris Hecker, John Cimino
Headquarters: World War II older $39.99 508 74% 15k $609k (exactly $609,448) Starni Games
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Oblivity - Find your perfect Sensitivity older $9.99 1,457 81% 44k $437k (exactly $436,663) Poly Games
TrickShot Simulator $5.99 191 81% 5.7k $34k (exactly $34,323) BeaTeb
The Original Moorhuhn Hunt $2.99 140 97% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
MARKSMAN VR · EA $8.99 16 31% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Crimson Gate
Moorhuhn Remake $2.99 38 89% 1.1k $3.4k (exactly $3,409) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
The Ultimate Trickshot Challenge $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Nothing But Clutch
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.